attempt new formula
This commit is contained in:
parent
1a0428a8e0
commit
5e0ff2891a
@ -33,6 +33,13 @@ import {
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YAxis,
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YAxis,
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ReferenceLine,
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ReferenceLine,
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} from "recharts";
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} from "recharts";
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import {
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Select,
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SelectContent,
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SelectItem,
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SelectTrigger,
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SelectValue,
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} from "@/components/ui/select";
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// Schema for form validation
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// Schema for form validation
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const formSchema = z.object({
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const formSchema = z.object({
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@ -53,6 +60,7 @@ const formSchema = z.object({
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lifeExpectancy: z.coerce
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lifeExpectancy: z.coerce
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.number()
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.number()
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.min(50, "Life expectancy must be at least 50"),
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.min(50, "Life expectancy must be at least 50"),
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retirementStrategy: z.enum(["Depletion", "Maintenance", "4% Rule"]),
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});
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});
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// Type for form values
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// Type for form values
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@ -87,6 +95,7 @@ export default function FireCalculatorForm() {
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desiredMonthlyAllowance: 2000,
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desiredMonthlyAllowance: 2000,
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inflationRate: 2,
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inflationRate: 2,
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lifeExpectancy: 84,
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lifeExpectancy: 84,
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retirementStrategy: "Depletion",
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},
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},
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});
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});
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@ -100,29 +109,20 @@ export default function FireCalculatorForm() {
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const initialMonthlyAllowance = values.desiredMonthlyAllowance;
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const initialMonthlyAllowance = values.desiredMonthlyAllowance;
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const annualInflation = values.inflationRate / 100;
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const annualInflation = values.inflationRate / 100;
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const lifeExpectancy = values.lifeExpectancy;
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const lifeExpectancy = values.lifeExpectancy;
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const retirementStrategy = values.retirementStrategy;
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const monthlyGrowthRate = Math.pow(1 + annualGrowthRate, 1 / 12) - 1;
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const monthlyGrowthRate = Math.pow(1 + annualGrowthRate, 1 / 12) - 1;
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const monthlyInflationRate = Math.pow(1 + annualInflation, 1 / 12) - 1;
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const monthlyInflationRate = Math.pow(1 + annualInflation, 1 / 12) - 1;
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const maxIterations = 1000; // Safety limit for iterations
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const maxIterations = 100; // Adjusted max iterations for age limit
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// Binary search for the required retirement capital
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let requiredCapital: number | null = null;
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let low = initialMonthlyAllowance * 12; // Minimum: one year of expenses
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let retirementAge: number | null = null;
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let high = initialMonthlyAllowance * 12 * 100; // Maximum: hundred years of expenses
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let finalInflationAdjustedAllowance: number | null = null;
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let requiredCapital = 0;
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let retirementAge = 0;
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let finalInflationAdjustedAllowance = 0;
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// First, find when retirement is possible with accumulation phase
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let canRetire = false;
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let canRetire = false;
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let currentCapital = startingCapital;
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let errorMessage: string | undefined = undefined;
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let age = currentAge;
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let monthlyAllowance = initialMonthlyAllowance;
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let iterations = 0;
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// Array to store yearly data for the chart
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// Array to store yearly data for the chart
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const yearlyData: CalculationResult["yearlyData"] = [];
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const yearlyData: CalculationResult["yearlyData"] = [];
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// Add starting point
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yearlyData.push({
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yearlyData.push({
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age: currentAge,
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age: currentAge,
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year: currentYear,
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year: currentYear,
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@ -130,79 +130,91 @@ export default function FireCalculatorForm() {
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phase: "accumulation",
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phase: "accumulation",
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});
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});
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// Accumulation phase simulation
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let currentCapital = startingCapital;
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while (age < lifeExpectancy && iterations < maxIterations) {
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let age = currentAge;
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// Simulate one year of saving and growth
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let monthlyAllowance = initialMonthlyAllowance;
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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currentCapital += monthlySavings;
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currentCapital *= 1 + monthlyGrowthRate;
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// Update allowance for inflation
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monthlyAllowance *= 1 + monthlyInflationRate;
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}
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age++;
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iterations++;
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// Record yearly data
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// --- Calculation Logic based on Strategy ---
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yearlyData.push({
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age: age,
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year: currentYear + (age - currentAge),
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balance: Math.round(currentCapital),
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phase: "accumulation",
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});
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// Check each possible retirement capital target through binary search
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if (retirementStrategy === "4% Rule") {
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const mid = (low + high) / 2;
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// --- 4% Rule Calculation ---
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if (high - low < 1) {
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requiredCapital = (initialMonthlyAllowance * 12) / 0.04;
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// Binary search converged
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requiredCapital = mid;
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break;
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}
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// Test if this retirement capital is sufficient
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// Simulate accumulation until the 4% rule target is met
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let testCapital = mid;
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while (age < lifeExpectancy) {
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let testAge = age;
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if (currentCapital >= requiredCapital) {
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let testAllowance = monthlyAllowance;
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let isSufficient = true;
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// Simulate retirement phase with this capital
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while (testAge < lifeExpectancy) {
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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// Withdraw inflation-adjusted allowance
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testCapital -= testAllowance;
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// Grow remaining capital
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testCapital *= 1 + monthlyGrowthRate;
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// Adjust allowance for inflation
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testAllowance *= 1 + monthlyInflationRate;
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}
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testAge++;
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// Check if we've depleted capital before life expectancy
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if (testCapital <= 0) {
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isSufficient = false;
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break;
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}
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}
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if (isSufficient) {
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high = mid; // This capital or less might be enough
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if (currentCapital >= mid) {
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// We can retire now with this capital
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canRetire = true;
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canRetire = true;
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retirementAge = age;
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retirementAge = age;
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requiredCapital = mid;
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finalInflationAdjustedAllowance = monthlyAllowance;
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finalInflationAdjustedAllowance = monthlyAllowance;
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break;
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break; // Found retirement age
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}
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}
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} else {
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low = mid; // We need more capital
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}
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}
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// If we didn't find retirement possible in the loop
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// Simulate one year of saving and growth
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if (!canRetire && iterations < maxIterations) {
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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// Continue accumulation phase until we reach sufficient capital
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currentCapital += monthlySavings;
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currentCapital *= 1 + monthlyGrowthRate;
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monthlyAllowance *= 1 + monthlyInflationRate; // Keep track of inflation-adjusted allowance
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}
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age++;
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yearlyData.push({
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age: age,
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year: currentYear + (age - currentAge),
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balance: Math.round(currentCapital),
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phase: "accumulation",
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});
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if (age >= lifeExpectancy) break; // Stop if life expectancy is reached
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}
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if (!canRetire) {
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errorMessage =
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"Cannot reach FIRE goal (4% Rule) before life expectancy.";
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requiredCapital = null; // Cannot retire, so no specific FIRE number applies this way
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} else if (retirementAge !== null) {
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// Simulate retirement phase for chart data (using 4% withdrawal adjusted for inflation)
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let simulationCapital = currentCapital;
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let simulationAge = retirementAge;
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let simulationAllowance = finalInflationAdjustedAllowance!;
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// Mark retirement phase in existing data
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yearlyData.forEach((data) => {
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if (data.age >= retirementAge!) {
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data.phase = "retirement";
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}
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});
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while (simulationAge < lifeExpectancy) {
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let yearlyWithdrawal = requiredCapital * 0.04; // Initial 4%
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// Adjust for inflation annually from retirement start
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yearlyWithdrawal *= Math.pow(
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1 + annualInflation,
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simulationAge - retirementAge,
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);
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const monthlyWithdrawal = yearlyWithdrawal / 12;
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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simulationCapital -=
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monthlyWithdrawal * Math.pow(1 + monthlyInflationRate, month); // Approximate intra-year inflation on withdrawal
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simulationCapital *= 1 + monthlyGrowthRate;
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}
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simulationAge++;
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yearlyData.push({
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age: simulationAge,
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year: currentYear + (simulationAge - currentAge),
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balance: Math.round(simulationCapital),
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phase: "retirement",
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});
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}
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}
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} else {
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// --- Depletion and Maintenance Calculation (Simulation-based) ---
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let iterations = 0;
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while (age < lifeExpectancy && iterations < maxIterations) {
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while (age < lifeExpectancy && iterations < maxIterations) {
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// Simulate one year
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// Simulate one year of saving and growth
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let yearStartCapital = currentCapital;
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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currentCapital += monthlySavings;
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currentCapital += monthlySavings;
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currentCapital *= 1 + monthlyGrowthRate;
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currentCapital *= 1 + monthlyGrowthRate;
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@ -211,7 +223,6 @@ export default function FireCalculatorForm() {
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age++;
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age++;
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iterations++;
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iterations++;
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// Record yearly data
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yearlyData.push({
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yearlyData.push({
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age: age,
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age: age,
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year: currentYear + (age - currentAge),
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year: currentYear + (age - currentAge),
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@ -219,71 +230,120 @@ export default function FireCalculatorForm() {
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phase: "accumulation",
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phase: "accumulation",
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});
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});
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// Test with current capital
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// --- Check if retirement is possible at this age ---
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let testCapital = currentCapital;
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let testCapital = currentCapital;
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let testAge = age;
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let testAge = age;
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let testAllowance = monthlyAllowance;
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let testAllowance = monthlyAllowance;
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let isSufficient = true;
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let isSufficient = true;
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// Simulate retirement with current capital
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// Simulate retirement phase to check sufficiency
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while (testAge < lifeExpectancy) {
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while (testAge < lifeExpectancy) {
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let yearlyStartCapital = testCapital;
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let yearlyGrowth = 0;
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let yearlyWithdrawal = 0;
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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testCapital -= testAllowance;
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let withdrawal = testAllowance;
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testCapital *= 1 + monthlyGrowthRate;
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yearlyWithdrawal += withdrawal;
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testAllowance *= 1 + monthlyInflationRate;
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testCapital -= withdrawal;
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let growth = testCapital * monthlyGrowthRate;
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yearlyGrowth += growth;
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testCapital += growth; // Apply growth *after* withdrawal for the month
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testAllowance *= 1 + monthlyInflationRate; // Inflate allowance for next month
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}
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}
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testAge++;
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testAge++;
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if (testCapital <= 0) {
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if (testCapital <= 0) {
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// Depleted capital before life expectancy
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isSufficient = false;
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isSufficient = false;
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break;
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break;
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}
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}
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}
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if (retirementStrategy === "Maintenance") {
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// Maintenance check: Withdrawal should not exceed growth for the year
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// Use average capital for a slightly more stable check? Or end-of-year growth vs start-of-year withdrawal?
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// Let's check if end-of-year capital is less than start-of-year capital
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if (testCapital < yearlyStartCapital) {
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isSufficient = false;
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break; // Capital decreased, maintenance failed
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}
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// Alternative check: yearlyWithdrawal > yearlyGrowth
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// if (yearlyWithdrawal > yearlyGrowth) {
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// isSufficient = false;
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// break; // Withdrawals exceed growth, maintenance failed
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// }
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}
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} // End retirement simulation check
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if (isSufficient) {
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if (isSufficient) {
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canRetire = true;
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canRetire = true;
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retirementAge = age;
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retirementAge = age;
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requiredCapital = currentCapital;
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requiredCapital = currentCapital; // The capital needed at this point
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finalInflationAdjustedAllowance = monthlyAllowance;
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finalInflationAdjustedAllowance = monthlyAllowance; // Allowance level at retirement
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break;
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break; // Found retirement age
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}
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}
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}
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} // End accumulation simulation loop
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}
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// If retirement is possible, simulate the retirement phase for the chart
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if (!canRetire) {
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if (canRetire) {
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errorMessage = `Cannot reach FIRE goal (${retirementStrategy}) before life expectancy or within ${maxIterations} years.`;
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// Update the phase for all years after retirement
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requiredCapital = null;
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yearlyData.forEach((data) => {
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} else if (retirementAge !== null) {
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if (data.age >= retirementAge) {
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// Simulate the actual retirement phase for chart data if retirement is possible
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data.phase = "retirement";
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let simulationCapital = requiredCapital!;
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}
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let simulationAge = retirementAge;
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});
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let simulationAllowance = finalInflationAdjustedAllowance!;
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// Continue simulation for retirement phase if needed
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// Mark retirement phase in existing data
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let simulationCapital = currentCapital;
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yearlyData.forEach((data) => {
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let simulationAllowance = monthlyAllowance;
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if (data.age >= retirementAge!) {
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let simulationAge = age;
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data.phase = "retirement";
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}
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// If we haven't simulated up to life expectancy, continue
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while (simulationAge < lifeExpectancy) {
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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simulationCapital -= simulationAllowance;
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simulationCapital *= 1 + monthlyGrowthRate;
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simulationAllowance *= 1 + monthlyInflationRate;
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}
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simulationAge++;
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// Record yearly data
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yearlyData.push({
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age: simulationAge,
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year: currentYear + (simulationAge - currentAge),
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balance: Math.round(simulationCapital),
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phase: "retirement",
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});
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});
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}
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}
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if (canRetire) {
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// Simulate remaining years until life expectancy
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while (simulationAge < lifeExpectancy) {
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for (let month = 0; month < 12; month++) {
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simulationCapital -= simulationAllowance;
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simulationCapital *= 1 + monthlyGrowthRate;
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simulationAllowance *= 1 + monthlyInflationRate;
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}
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simulationAge++;
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// Ensure capital doesn't go below zero for chart visibility in Depletion
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const displayBalance =
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retirementStrategy === "Depletion"
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? Math.max(0, simulationCapital)
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: simulationCapital;
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yearlyData.push({
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age: simulationAge,
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year: currentYear + (simulationAge - currentAge),
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balance: Math.round(displayBalance),
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phase: "retirement",
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});
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}
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}
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} // End Depletion/Maintenance logic
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// --- Set Final Result ---
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if (
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canRetire &&
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retirementAge !== null &&
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requiredCapital !== null &&
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finalInflationAdjustedAllowance !== null
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) {
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// Ensure yearlyData covers up to lifeExpectancy if retirement happens early
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const lastDataYear =
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yearlyData[yearlyData.length - 1]?.year ?? currentYear;
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const expectedEndYear = currentYear + (lifeExpectancy - currentAge);
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if (lastDataYear < expectedEndYear) {
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// Need to continue simulation purely for charting if the main calc stopped early
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// (This might already be covered by the post-retirement simulation loops added above)
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console.warn(
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"Chart data might not extend fully to life expectancy in some scenarios.",
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);
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}
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setResult({
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setResult({
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fireNumber: requiredCapital,
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fireNumber: requiredCapital,
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retirementAge: retirementAge,
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retirementAge: retirementAge,
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@ -298,11 +358,9 @@ export default function FireCalculatorForm() {
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retirementAge: null,
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retirementAge: null,
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inflationAdjustedAllowance: null,
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inflationAdjustedAllowance: null,
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retirementYears: null,
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retirementYears: null,
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yearlyData: yearlyData,
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yearlyData: yearlyData, // Show accumulation data even if goal not reached
|
||||||
error:
|
error:
|
||||||
iterations >= maxIterations
|
errorMessage ?? "Calculation failed to find a retirement scenario.",
|
||||||
? "Calculation exceeded maximum iterations."
|
|
||||||
: "Cannot reach FIRE goal before life expectancy with current parameters.",
|
|
||||||
});
|
});
|
||||||
}
|
}
|
||||||
}
|
}
|
||||||
@ -451,6 +509,33 @@ export default function FireCalculatorForm() {
|
|||||||
</FormItem>
|
</FormItem>
|
||||||
)}
|
)}
|
||||||
/>
|
/>
|
||||||
|
<FormField
|
||||||
|
control={form.control}
|
||||||
|
name="retirementStrategy"
|
||||||
|
render={({ field }) => (
|
||||||
|
<FormItem>
|
||||||
|
<FormLabel>Retirement Strategy</FormLabel>
|
||||||
|
<Select
|
||||||
|
onValueChange={field.onChange}
|
||||||
|
defaultValue={field.value}
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
<FormControl>
|
||||||
|
<SelectTrigger>
|
||||||
|
<SelectValue placeholder="Select a retirement strategy" />
|
||||||
|
</SelectTrigger>
|
||||||
|
</FormControl>
|
||||||
|
<SelectContent>
|
||||||
|
<SelectItem value="Depletion">Depletion</SelectItem>
|
||||||
|
<SelectItem value="Maintenance">
|
||||||
|
Maintenance
|
||||||
|
</SelectItem>
|
||||||
|
<SelectItem value="4% Rule">4% Rule</SelectItem>
|
||||||
|
</SelectContent>
|
||||||
|
</Select>
|
||||||
|
<FormMessage />
|
||||||
|
</FormItem>
|
||||||
|
)}
|
||||||
|
/>
|
||||||
</div>
|
</div>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
<Button type="submit" className="w-full">
|
<Button type="submit" className="w-full">
|
||||||
@ -473,7 +558,10 @@ export default function FireCalculatorForm() {
|
|||||||
) : (
|
) : (
|
||||||
<div className="space-y-4">
|
<div className="space-y-4">
|
||||||
<div>
|
<div>
|
||||||
<Label>FIRE Number (Required Capital)</Label>
|
<Label>
|
||||||
|
FIRE Number (Required Capital at Retirement - Strategy:{" "}
|
||||||
|
{form.getValues().retirementStrategy})
|
||||||
|
</Label>
|
||||||
<p className="text-2xl font-bold">
|
<p className="text-2xl font-bold">
|
||||||
{formatNumber(result.fireNumber)}
|
{formatNumber(result.fireNumber)}
|
||||||
</p>
|
</p>
|
||||||
@ -562,8 +650,8 @@ export default function FireCalculatorForm() {
|
|||||||
<div className="bg-background border p-2 shadow-sm">
|
<div className="bg-background border p-2 shadow-sm">
|
||||||
<p className="font-medium">{`Year: ${data.year.toString()} (Age: ${data.age.toString()})`}</p>
|
<p className="font-medium">{`Year: ${data.year.toString()} (Age: ${data.age.toString()})`}</p>
|
||||||
<p className="text-primary">{`Balance: ${formatNumber(data.balance)}`}</p>
|
<p className="text-primary">{`Balance: ${formatNumber(data.balance)}`}</p>
|
||||||
{result.fireNumber && (
|
{result.fireNumber !== null && (
|
||||||
<p className="text-destructive">{`FIRE Number: ${formatNumber(result.fireNumber)}`}</p>
|
<p className="text-destructive">{`Target FIRE Number: ${formatNumber(result.fireNumber)}`}</p>
|
||||||
)}
|
)}
|
||||||
<p>{`Phase: ${data.phase === "accumulation" ? "Accumulation" : "Retirement"}`}</p>
|
<p>{`Phase: ${data.phase === "accumulation" ? "Accumulation" : "Retirement"}`}</p>
|
||||||
</div>
|
</div>
|
||||||
|
Loading…
x
Reference in New Issue
Block a user